Identifying Behavioral Biases and Nudges in Crisis Management

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Prof., Department of Leadership and Human Capital, Faculty of Public Administration and Organizational Sciences, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 PhD in Public Administration, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Abstract
This study examines behavioral biases that influence crisis managers' decisions and actions during natural disasters, often leading to suboptimal decision-making. Drawing on behavioral economics, this research identifies cognitive patterns and biases that shape crisis management behavior. Using Q methodology with semi-structured interviews, insights from 25 crisis managers were analyzed. The findings reveal that optimism bias is the most prevalent in Iranian crisis management, while social pressure reduction and conservative service orientation also significantly affect decision-making.
Before a crisis, managers exhibit biases such as managerial instability, learned helplessness, media framing, normalization, and cognitive consistency. During crises, additional biases emerge, including collective action bias, projection bias, emotional bias, and distrust in leadership. Post-crisis, reliance on prominent figures significantly shapes public trust and decision-making.
The study suggests that nudges can help mitigate these biases. A total of 23 nudges were identified for the pre-crisis phase, 17 for crisis response, and 4 for post-crisis recovery.
Introduction
Human settlements are frequently exposed to natural, technological, and anthropogenic hazards. Among these, earthquakes and floods have increased in frequency and severity. Iran ranks 7th in Asia and 13th globally in seismic activity, with 90% of its landmass located in earthquake-prone zones. The over-centralization of Tehran, combined with rapid environmental changes, exacerbates its disaster vulnerability.
Although rational decision-making is ideal in crisis management, behavioral economics highlights how cognitive biases often distort judgment. Crisis situations further amplify these biases due to uncertainty, emotional stress, and high-pressure environments, affecting both crisis managers and the affected population.
This study investigates:
What cognitive biases influence crisis managers' decision-making during natural disasters?
Which nudging strategies can effectively mitigate these biases?
Materials and Methods
This study employs Q methodology, designed to explore subjective perceptions and cognitive patterns. The research process involved:

Sampling: 25 crisis managers were selected through snowball sampling, followed by 5 additional senior crisis executives, bringing the total to 30 participants.
Data Collection: Semi-structured interviews were conducted to identify key cognitive biases. Participants ranked 25 identified statements on a Q-sort matrix, ranging from highly agree (+4) to highly disagree (-4).
Data Analysis: Factor analysis using SPSS was performed to identify dominant mental models influencing crisis management.

Discussion and Results
The findings revealed three dominant mental models among crisis managers:

Optimistic Political Mindset

Overestimation of crisis response capabilities.

Emphasis on positive narratives rather than risk mitigation.
Biases: Optimism bias, overconfidence, near-sightedness, normalization of risk.
Example: Underestimating the severity of a future Tehran earthquake based on previous minor tremors.


Social Pressure Reduction Mindset


Crisis response prioritizes symbolic actions over practical solutions.
Measures focus on reducing public criticism rather than actual preparedness.
Biases: Ostrich effect, media-driven framing, selective risk perception.
Example: Constructing emergency shelters that may not be operational during an actual disaster.


Conservative Service-Oriented Mindset


Emphasis on immediate, emotional responses rather than strategic long-term planning.
Strong focus on public image and humanitarian aid, often at the cost of systemic crisis management.
Biases: Emotional bias, groupthink, collective action bias.
Example: High-profile rescue efforts for isolated cases while neglecting broader systemic needs.

Nudging Strategies
To counteract these biases, experts identified 44 nudging techniques, categorized as follows:

Pre-crisis (23 nudges): Awareness campaigns, media strategies, early warning systems.
During crisis (17 nudges): Structured crisis communication, trust-building, decision support systems.
Post-crisis (4 nudges): Transparency measures, public trust restoration.

Conclusion
Crisis management in Iran is heavily influenced by behavioral biases, leading to reactive rather than proactive strategies. The three mental models—optimism bias, social pressure reduction, and conservative service orientation—explain many of the challenges observed in disaster response. These biases contribute to:

Delayed responses.
Symbolic decision-making.
Emotion-driven rather than strategic crisis management.

Behavioral nudges provide cost-effective interventions that can help crisis managers make better, evidence-based decisions by subtly steering them toward rational choices.
This study offers valuable insights into the intersection of behavioral economics and disaster risk reduction. Future research should focus on experimentally validating nudging interventions to assess their real-world effectiveness in crisis management.

Keywords

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Public Management Researches
Volume 18, Issue 69 - Serial Number 69
September 2025
Pages 155-188

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