Designing a Model for Scenarios Based on Identifying Key Factors and Analyzing the Key Actors' Interactions.

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Department of Interdisciplinary Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Interdisciplinary Technology, Faculty of Science and Technology, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Executive Management Department, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

4 Ph.D. Candidate of Futures Studies, University of Tehran, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Abstract
Scenario planning is a technique that, given environmental uncertainties, offers several perspectives different from the future. The scenarios present the possible future scenarios in stories and provide alternative narratives about future-related situations. Scenario planning is one of the best and most powerful tools for future scientific knowledge that can be used to identify and review future changes and uncertainties in the future. Given the importance of scenario analysis and its effects on the country's macro-programs, organizations, firms, etc., the success and effectiveness of scenario-making processes has always been a concern for the management of countries. Considering the key role of casters in the future, this research seeks to extract the behavior of the actors in each of the key elements of the future, in order to develop existing methods, and then proceed with scenarios. To this end, the scenarios that were developed by researchers and experts in this field were reviewed and a new framework for studying scenario was obtained and validated by a team of experts in this area.
Introduction
An overview of scripting literature suggests that in none of the proposed methods consider the behavior of important actors as one of the future factors. Research in the literature of research shows that in all of these methods, first of all, it is to identify the key factors and then the forces of progression and identification of the uncertainty And eventually scenario with the choice of logic governing the scenario. In this regard, Zali and Sajadi (2017), Nazemi et al. (2017), Zali and Zamanipour (2016), Shakouri et al (2015), Bilali (2012) and Zali (2009) Made Therefore, in view of the key role of the cast in the future, this research seeks to extract the behavior of the actors in each of the identified key factors in order to develop existing methods and then proceed with scenario analysis. Regarding the consideration of the role of key actors in the scriptwriting process, Ali Zare Mirk-Abad, in his doctoral dissertation, has devised a scenario based on the viewer's perspective, in which the performance of the actors by him was conducted only in a perfectly qualitative manner (Q method).
Case Study
In this research, a sample of 12 experts and researchers in the field of future research was selected for interview and a sample of 43 people were selected to complete the questionnaire. The framework of the scenarios available by researchers and experts in this field was reviewed and a new framework for studying the obtained scenarios was obtained. And its credibility was confirmed by a group of experts in the field.
Materials and Methods
In this research, both field and library methods have been used to collect information. In the present study, since the main focus of the proposed framework is on the minds of experts and is depicted in the various stages of the proposed framework, the wisdom in the minds of experts, the selection of experts is of particular importance. In the current study, the number of samples selected for interview was equal to 12 people selected by snowball method. In the process of selecting an example, qualitative researchers can use a snowball sampling method in which a participant in our research leads to other participants or snowball. With this number of interviews, the investigator's diagnosis was that the collected data reached a saturated point and there was no need for further interviews. In choosing this sample number, issues such as time, availability of interviewees and their degree of cooperation have been considered. Finally, in order to measure the model through scrolling, a questionnaire consisting of 21 questions was sent to validate the model to 43 experts and researchers in the field of futures studies. Finally, 17 valid questionnaires were collected.
Discussion and Results
In this article, the approach to studying the behavior of actors is based on the approach of the French school (Michel Godet) and the method of MACTOR, which was done for the first time. In the meantime, the scenario approach in his treatise is based on the Scenario model of the Global Business Network or the Schwartz model, but in the proposed model, this paper describes the scenario development approach based on the model. In the scenario model, according to Michel Godet, all the points mentioned in the Peter Schwartz model are accepted. But in one case, his approach to the subject is deeply rooted in Schwartz's method, and this involves the need for formal analysis in parts of the scenario process, which is, of course, not very different. For example, in the methodology, the exact identification of the subject of futures studies with strategic planning in the first step and the search for effective variables (Schwartz's forces and forces) is necessary in steps two and three. But in order to search for variables or factors and the effect of one on the other, Godet also recommended the formal method of structural analysis in addition to setting up a futuristic studio (Schwartz scenario group) and extensive consultation with practitioners and experts. Or, in the search for possible or probable scenarios or futures, which, like the Schwartz analysis axes, are composed of various combinations of variables, has also benefited from the analysis of morphology.
Conclusion
This paper attempts to use the meta-combination method to propose a suitable framework for performing scenario-based studies. To this end, the scenario frameworks presented by researchers and experts in this field were reviewed and a new framework for studying scenario was obtained. The difference in the framework provided with other frameworks is to consider the behavior of key actors and to provide strategic options for policy making.

Keywords

References

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