طراحی مدل ترکیبی آینده‌نگاری منابع انسانی بخش دولتی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشگاه علم و فرهنگ

2 استادیار دانشگاه علم و فرهنگ

3 دانشیار مرکز تحقیقات استراتژیک

4 دانشجوی دکترای آینده‌پژوهی پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات اجتماعی

10.22111/jmr.2019.21672.3554

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارائه مدلی ترکیبی آینده­نگاری منابع انسانی بخش دولتی انجام شده است. تحقیق از لحاظ هدف توسعه­ای و از نظر نحوه جمع‌آوری داده‌ها توصیفی و از نظر روش تحقیق، آمیخته می­باشد. جامعه آماری پژوهش خبرگان و متخصصین موضوع بوده و برای تعیین حجم نمونه در بخش کیفی پژوهش از معیار اشباع نظری و روش نمونه­گیری گلوله برفی استفاده گردید. برای تعیین روایی متغیرهای مدل نیز از تعداد 38 نفر از اعضای جامعه آماری به صورت نمونه­گیری در دسترس نظرخواهی به عمل آمد. برای تحلیل داده­های کیفی از روش تحلیل تم و برای روایی مدل از روایی محتوا استفاده شد. ابزار جمع­آوری داده­های کیفی مصاحبه و پنل خبرگان و برای تعیین روایی مدل از پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. مدل نهایی ارائه شده، یک مدل ترکیبی است که در آن نظام منابع انسانی بخش دولتی دارای سه بعد ترکیب، رفتار و زمینه (کلان و سازمانی) می­باشد که با همدیگر در تعامل بوده و برای درک راهبردی از آینده، بایستی تعاملات بین آنها مورد بررسی قرار گیرد و تعیین پیشران­ها و آینده­نگاری بر این اساس صورت پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a Mixed Model for Human Resource Foresight in the Public Sector of I.R.Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behzad Mashali 1
  • Hasan Sheybani 2
  • Ebrahim hajiani 3
  • Aliollah Ghanbari 4
1 Associate Professor, University of Science and Culture
2 Assistant Professor, University of Science and Culture
3 3- Associate Professor, Center for Strategic Research
4 Ph.D. candidate in Futures study, Institute of Humanities and Social Studies
چکیده [English]

Abstract
The aim of this study was to provide a mixed model for human resource foresight in the public sector. The research purpose is evolutionary, the data collection method is descriptive and research method is mixed method. The statistical population of the study were experts. The sample size in the qualitative part of the research was surveyed by using theoretical saturation criterion and snowball sampling method. To determine the validity of the variables of model, 38 members of the statistical population were consulted as available sampling. The analysis of theme was used to analyze the qualitative data and Content validity was used to determine the validity of the model. Interviews and expert panel were tools of collecting qualitative data. To determine the validity of the model, a questionnaire was used. The presented final model is a mixed model in which the public sector human resource system has three dimensions: composition, behavior and context (macro and organizational). These dimensions interact with each other. Having a strategic understanding about future, needs attention to this interaction and this interaction should be considered in foresight process.
Introduction
Environmental rapid changes cause "human resources planning" as an important and challenging task in organizations development process. This task involves plans for future personnel needs, their needed skills, recruitment and staff development (Kumaran, 2010). One of the key problems of planning relates to developing accurate predictions in an unstable environment. The inability in accurate prediction of problems and the inadequacy of traditional forecasting methods based programs have forced decision makers to use futures study and foresight principles in planning processes. Thus, human resource foresight can be an effective way of looking at possible and probable futures, determining the desirable future, and providing the necessary solutions to cope with the challenges associated with human resources in the future. Due to shortages of current planning approaches and methods to deal with rapid changes and uncertainties, the main problem of this research is how to plan to provide appropriate human resources in the public sector of country, given the changing conditions and future uncertainties, and how to use foresight approaches in better human resource managing in the future and developing more appropriate strategies and policies in this area. The main question of the research is: "Given the changing conditions and different futures, what kind of model can be used to determine the quantitative and qualitative composition of human resources in the public sector?"
Case study
The public sector of Islamic Republic of Iran was the case of this study.
Materials and Methods
This study is developmental in terms of purpose and is descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. The research method is a mixed method. In this study, literature review and field studies were used for data collection. Due to the research method of this research, which is a mixed method, as well as various steps were taken during the research to collect data and information, in each step, the appropriate tool was used for that step and based on the used resources.
The statistical population of this study was the experts and snowball sampling was used to select the interviewees and respondents. Theoretical saturation criterion was used to determine the sample size. Accordingly, 38 experts were employed. After the interviews, the panel of experts was used as a complementary process to complete the variables.
Discussion and Results
In the proposed model, the proposed drivers were determined by study the interactions between the system and its environment (organizational environment and macro environment). Accordingly, the HR system of the administrative system has three dimensions, structure (elements related to the hard dimensions of the HR system and mainly including the demographic dimensions of HR), behavior (elements related to the soft dimensions of the system, including knowledge, learning, motivation, trust, …), and context (macro and organizational) as the determinants of the driving forces of the future HR system, interacting with each other, and for getting a comprehensive and strategic perception about the future, the interactions between them should be examined and analyzed.
Conclusion
In this research, using different tools at different stages, expert opinions of the subject were exploited and the model was formulated. The final model, called the "Ball bearing Model", is a mixed model and can be used as a model for future public sector human resource planning projects at the macro level. The overall model can also be used at the micro level and even in private sector organizations and companies. In the present model, human resources of the administrative system have three dimensions, structure, behavior and context (macro and organizational context). In order to have a comprehensive and strategic perception of the future, the interactions between these three dimensions should be analyzed. In this model, the process of human resource foresight project is categorized in five steps: pre-foresight, inputs determining, foresight, strategies and plans formulation, and review. In addition, the required actions for each step are specified.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Human Resources
  • Strategic Management
  • Public sector
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