مدیریت توسعه و رشد اقتصادی در ایران؛ تحلیلی بر تنگناهای رشد با رویکرد داده بنیاد

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

3 دانشیار اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

چکیده

   دستیابی به نرخ رشد اقتصادی بالا یکی از اهداف مهم هر نظام اقتصادی به شمار می‌رود که تحقق آن متضمن به کارگیری سیاست‌های مناسب اقتصادی در جهت بالا بردن رشد است. اما قبل از هر سیاست‌گذاری جدیدی باید محدودیت‌ها و تنگناهایی که در مسیر وجود دارند شناسایی و رفع شوند تا مانع اثرگذاری سیاست‌های جدید نشوند. در این تحقیق با استفاده از رویکرد HRV و بر اساس درخت تصمیم آسیب‌شناسی رشد، به بررسی محدودیت‌های رشد اقتصادی ایران طی سال‌های 1380 تا 1395 پرداخته شده‌است. روش تحقیق رویکرد مدیریتی داده بنیاد بوده و از مصاحبه باز استفاده شده‌است. بر اساس یافته‌های این تحقیق، ضعف در تأمین مالی، محدودیت اصلی سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی و کارآفرینی کشور و تعیین کننده رشد اقتصادی کشور است. ضعف در تأمین مالی ناشی از ضعف در نظام بانکی کشور است که برای از بین بردن آن باید در ساختار، قوانین و سیاست‌های بانک‌ها اصلاحات اساسی صورت بگیرد. همچنین ضعف در ساختار و عملکرد دولت عامل دیگر به وجود آمدن این تنگنا است که تقویت روابط خارجی، کم کردن ریسک سرمایه‌گذاری و توسعه نهادهای پیشرفته تأمین مالی می‌تواند در رفع آن بسیار مؤثر واقع شود. عامل سوم ضعف در تأمین مالی نیز اشکالات نظام قضائی است که برای حل آن باید توسط یک نهاد بالاتری باید مورد نظارت قرار بگیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Growth and Development Management in Iran, An Analysis of Growth Constraints; grounded theory Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Akbarzadeh 1
  • Mosayeb Pahlavani 2
  • Seyed Hossein Mirjalili 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan,, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran
3 Associate Prof., Faculty of Economics, Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Abstract
In this research, using the HRV approach and based on the growth diagnostics decision tree, we examined the limitations of Iran's economic growth during 1380 to 1395. The research methodology is grounded theory approach and benefited from open interview. According to the findings of  this study, the weakness in financing is the main constraint for private sector  investment and entrepreneurship in the country and determines the country's economic growth. The weakness in financing is due to a weakness in the banking system in Iran, which requires major reforms in the structure, laws and policies of the banks. Another weakness in the structure and functioning of the government which created this bottleneck. Strengthening foreign relations, reducing the risk of investment and developing advanced financing institutions can be very effective in this regard. The third factor of weakness in financing is also the flaws in the judicial system that should be monitored by a higher authority to resolve it.
Introduction
 In 1355, Iran's economy experienced a high economic growth rate  (16.2%). With the advent of revolutionary conditions in 1356 and after the outbreak of the war, the rate of economic growth declined sharply. Except for 1961-63, the economic growth rate was negative until the end of the war. During  the post-war period, the rate of economic growth has been very fluctuating, from -9.6%  to 14.3%. The most stable growth rate during the forty-year period of 1384 - 1386 was about 7%, and Iran's average economic growth for the forty years (1355-1375) was 2.9%. As long as the binding constraints for investment and production are not overcome, achieving economic stability and sustained growth of 8%, which is the target growth rate of the sixth plan, is not possible.
Case Study
Achieving a high economic growth rate is one of the most important goals of any economic system, which first needs to identify and resolve its binding constraint. This study examined the constraints of economic growth in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Materials and methods
The research method is grounded theory. This method is carried out by deep interviews. According to the research question, first, the key points are collected and each point allocated a specific code. Then by comparing the codes, the codes which refer to a common aspect of the phenomenon take the title of a "concept". Then, few concepts establish a "category" and several categories are expressed in the form of a theory. In order to facilitate the movement in the evolutionary path of the researcher's theory, the data collection should move to the most relevant sources, in which case the data will be almost near the goal of the research. The result of the aggregation of coding is a general theory that could be generalized.
Discussion and results
According to the interviews, the most consensus is on funding constraints, which  account for 46‌ % of interviews' votes. It means that this binding constraint has to  be removed in order to speed up the country's economic growth. After funding 23 percent of marketers interviewed people as a country's binding constraints, 15 percent mentioned government failure, 8 percent pointed out  human capital weakness, and 8 percent mentioned weak infrastructure. Meanwhile,  none of the interviewed people considered the poor geography as the binding constraint to growth.
Looking at the studies that have been mentioned in the background, it is observed  that Vietnam and Pakistan are similar to Iran in funding constraints. Peru and Mongolia’s binding constraints are  market failure, Georgia face government failure, Tunisia suffer from poor human capital, and Sri Lanka and Tajikistan, has weak Infrastructure like Iran.
Conclusion
According to the interviews, weakness in financing is due to weaknesses in  the banking system of Iran, which requires major reforms in the structure,  laws and policies of the banking system. Also, weakness in the structure and  functioning of the government is another determinant of the bottleneck. Strengthening foreign relations, reducing the risk of investment and developing
advanced financing institutions can be effective in removing it. The third  factor of weakness in financing is also the flaws in the judicial system that should be monitored by a higher authority



[1]-Hausman,Rodrik,Velasco (HRV)

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Growth Constraints
  • Iran's Economy
  • Grounded Theory
  • Growth diagnostics

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