اعتباریابی ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های فرهنگ ریسک: کاربرد دلفی فازی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد مدیریت دولتی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

2 استاد مدیریت منابع انسانی دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار مدیریت سیستم‌ها دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران

4 دانشیار مدیریت مالی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی دانشگاه الزهرا

5 دکتری مدیریت منابع انسانی پردیس البرز دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

فرهنگ ریسک، از موضوعات جدیدی است که پس از وقوع بحران‌های مالی وارد ادبیات مدیریت ریسک شده است. درحالیکه پژوهش‌های متعددی در خصوص مدل‌های کمّی مدیریت ریسک صورت گرفته، با وجود این، جنبه‌های رفتاری مدیریت ریسک، که در مفهوم فرهنگ ریسک تجلی می‌یابد، نیازمند تلاش‌های فکری، توسعة تئوری‌ها و انجام پژو‌هش‌های بیشتری است. هدفاصلیاینپژوهش شناسایی ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های فرهنگ ریسک در راستای دستیابی به مقیاسی برایشناساییوسنجش فرهنگ ریسک است. از سوی دیگر یک گام مهم و حیاتی در هر پژوهشی تصمیم‌گیری در خصوص مؤلفه‌های مناسب هر سازه است. نگه‌داشتن مؤلفه‌های نامناسب و حذف مؤلفه‌های با اهمیت جهت‌گیری مطالعات را گمراه‌ می‌سازد. در این پژوهش شیوه‌دلفی فازی به عنوان یکی از فنون تحلیل علمی برای دستیابی به اتفاق نظر میان اعضای پنل برای تعیین مؤلفه‌‌ها و ابعاد فرهنگ ریسک بکار برده شده است. این روش ابهام، تنوع و تفاوت دیدگاه‌ها را در میان آنها کاهش می‌دهد و با دادن اطمینان از اینکه آیا داده‌های جمع‌آوری شده از اعتبار لازم برخوردار هستند، کیفیت مؤلفه‌های انتخاب شده را افزایش می‌دهد. بدین منظور پرسشنامه‌ای با بهره‌گیری از نتایج پژوهش‌های پیشین تدوین و برای اعضای پنل که شامل مدیران ریسک نظام بانکی بودند ارسال شد. روش دلفی فازی دراین پژوهش درمجموع در دو دور به انجام رسید. اعضای پنل دلفی در مجموع 56 مؤلفه، 13 بعد فرعی و 4 بعد اصلی را به عنوان ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های فرهنگ ریسک در صنعت بانکداری تشخیص دادند. 2 مؤلفه نیز به عنوان نتایج ملموس فرهنگ ریسک شناسایی شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Validation of Dimensions and Component of Risk Culture: Using Fuzzy Delphi Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolhasan Faghihi 1
  • Aryan Gholipour 2
  • Mohammad Abooyee Ardakan 3
  • Hasan Ghalibaf Asl 4
  • Asghar Asadi 5
1 Prof. public Management, University of Allameh Tabataba'i , Iran
2 Prof. Human Resource Management, University of Tehran
3 Associate Prof. Systems Management, University of Tehran, Iran
4 Associate Prof. financial Management, University of Alzahra, Iran
5 Ph.D. candidate, Human Resource Management, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Risk culture is a new issue that has entered the risk management literature after financial crises.While several studies have been conducted on quantitative risk management models, but behavioral aspects focusing on the concept of risk culture requires intellectual endeavors, the development of theories, and further researches. Recognizing the dimensions and components of risk culture in order to achieve a tools for the recognition and assessment of risk culture is the main objective of this research. On the other hand, a significant step in each research is the decision making regarding the appropriate component relevant to each construct. Maintaining inappropriate component an eliminating important component might mislead studies directions. In this research, the Fuzzy Delphi method is considered as a techniques of scientific analysis to accomplish agreement amongst panel members to determine the components and dimensions of risk culture. This method diminishes ambiguity, variety and discrepancies in viewpoint; furthermore, guaranteeing the fact that whether or not the gathered data is valid enough, increases the quality of selected component.
Introduction
Although the need for risk management has been widely accepted, organizations often consider the impact of their cultural aspects insignificantly, and little evidence of risk culture, especially in the banking sector (Binti Hamzah, 2014; Ariffin and Kassim, 2011). Creating and maintaining a suitable risk culture is still one of the major challenges in risk management. Considering the importance of risk culture in risk management, it is necessary to develop a scale for measuring it. By measuring the risk culture, it will be possible to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of efforts to shape and manage it. While quantitative models and governance frameworks for risk management are well established at the moment, the behavioral aspects, which focus on risk culture, are often unclear and under development and theorizing (Banks, 2012).
In this regard, efforts have been made by international institutes and researchers to provide frameworks for risk culture in general (McConnell, 2013; Levy, Lamarre, & Twining, 2010; PWC, 2009; IRM, 2012; Tower Watson, 2011; EY, 2014; Deloitte, 2015; FSB, 2014; IIF, 2012; RMA, 2014; VMIA, 2016; Banks, 2012; Kells, 2014; Schoenfeld, 2013), which show that the dimensions and components of risk culture vary greatly in different fields and domains, therefore, According
that there is no research background in Iran and, given the determinant effect of context , it is necessary to recognize the dimensions and components of risk culture in the banking industry of Iran.
In this research has been attempted, by using the Fuzzy Delphi method as a scientific method for validating the dimensions and components of risk culture in the banking industry, by achieving a scale for identifying and measuring the risk culture, while responding to the gap in the academic literature, improve Indicators of risk culture
Case study
The statistical population of this study is risk managers of the banking industry. In this regard, the questionnaire was sent to all bank risk managers through official envelop. Finally, 28 questionnaires were received in the first round and 27 questionnaires in the second round.
Materials and Methods
In this research, Fuzzy Delphi method is used as one of the scientific analysis techniques for reaching consensus among panel members to determine the components and dimensions of risk culture. In this regard, a questionnaire was used to collect data. In order to prepare a questionnaire to start the Fuzzy Delphi process, also the results of previous studies and models presented in this field were used.
Discussion and Results
The Fuzzy Delphi method was performed in two rounds. Panel members totally realized 56 component, 13 sub-dimensions and 4 main dimensions as component and dimensions of risk culture in banking industry. 2 component were also realized as explicit results of risk culture. The results of the rounds showed that for the following reasons (Manakandan, et al. 2017, 228; Mohamad, Embi and Nordin, 2015; Kamarulzaman etal., 2015), the members of the panel had come to an agreement, and it was possible to stop the rounds:
percentage of agreement between all components in both rounds is above 75%, indicating that there is a consensus among the members. Percentage of panel members agreement on the dimensions and components of risk culture for the first and second round respectively are 85% and 87%. Therefore, it can be said that due to the small differences in the results in the first and second rounds (less than 0.2 difference), it is not necessary to continue the process and do a new round.
Conclusion
This research showed that the Fuzzy Delphi method can be used as a tool for obtaining expert opinions and reaching consensus in group decision making process. This can be used as a structural validation tool to select the appropriate components and items. In addition, it provides a suitable quantitative approach to group discussions and meetings that are qualitative. This research, as the first research in the field of risk culture in general and risk culture in the banking industry in particular in Iran, needs to be completed and continued. The findings of this study can be considered as the first step in the construction of the theory, although at a low level, for risk culture in Iran's banking industry.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk
  • risk management
  • risk culture
  • Fuzzy, Fuzzy Delphi

1-Anderson, D. R., (1990). Increased productivity via group decision making. Supervision, 51(9), 6-11.

2-Ariffin, N. M., & Kassim, S. H. (2011). Risk management practices and financial performance of islamic banks: Malaysian evidence. Center for Islamic  Economics and Finance, Qatar Faculty of Islamic Studies.http://conference.qfis.edu.qa/app/media/271.

3-Banks, E. (2012). Risk culture: a practical guide to building and strengthening the fabric of risk management. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

4-Binti Hamzah, R. (2014). The determinant factors for a successful risk culture in banking sector: Malaysian Case. University Utara Malaysia.Thesis Submitted to Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business.

5-Blacker, K., & McConnell, P. (2015). People Risk Management: A practical approach to managing the human factors that could harm your business. London: Kogan Page Limited.

6-Chen, C. & Lee, S. (2013). Developing the country brand of Taiwan from the perspective of exports. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(9), 1223-1236.

7-Chou, J. (2012). A linguistic evaluation approach for universal design. Information Sciences, 190, 76–94.

8-Clayton, Mark J. (1997). Delphi: A technique to harness expert opinion for criticaldecision-making tasks in education. Educational Psychology, 17(4), 373-386.

9-Cooper, T., Speh, C., & Downey, A. (2011). Creating a culture of risk management. Wolters Kluwer Financial Services.

10-Deloitte. (2015). Implementing risk transformation in financial institutions Governance and culture. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

11-EY. (2014). Shifting focus: risk culture at the forefront of banking: Risk management survey of major financial institutions. EYGM Limited.

12-Fritz-Morgenthal, S , Hellmuth, J., & Packham, N. (2016). Does risk culture matter? The relationship between risk culture indicators and stress test results. Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 9(1), 71-84.

13-FSB. (2014). Guidance on supervisory interaction with financial institutions on risk culture: a framework for assessing risk culture. Financial Stability Board.

14-Glumac, B., Han, Q., Smeets, J., & Schaefer, W. (2011). Brownfield redevelopment features: applying Fuzzy Delphi, Journal of European Real Estate Research, 4( 2), 145 – 159.

15-Goodman, G. R. (1998). Group decision making. Professional safety. 43(5), 42-46.

16-Gosden, M., Jones, K., Daisley, M., & Pape, J. (2014). Getting to the heart of risk culture whit in financial services. Oliver Wyman. www.oliverwyman.com.

17-Grisham, T., (2009),The delphi technique: a method for testing complex and multifaceted topics, International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 2 (1), 112 – 130.

18-Hasson, F., Keeney, S., & McKenna, H., (2000). Research guidelines for the delphi survey technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 32(4), 1008-1015.

19-Hubbard, D., & Evans, D. (2010). Problems with scoring methods and ordinal scales in risk assessment. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 54(3), 1-10.

20-Ibiyemi, A. O., Adnan, Y. M., & Daud M. N., (2016), The validity of the classical delphi applications for assessing the industrial sustainability-correction factor: an example study, foresight, (18)6, 603 – 624.

21-IIF. (2012). Governance for strengthened risk management. Institute of International Finance. www.iif.com.

22-IRM. (2012). Risk culture: unender the microscope guidance for boards. London: Institute of Risk Management.

23-ISO 31000 .(2009). Iso 31000: Risk management principles and guide line: Geneva: International Standard Organization.

24-Kamarulzaman, N., Jomhari N., Raus, N., & Yusoff, M. Z. M. (2015). Applying the fuzzy delphi method to analyze the user requirement for user centred design process in order to create learning applications. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 8(32), 1-7.

25-Kells, D. (2014). Fostering a risk intelligent culture–why behaviour matters. RIMS Canada Conference. Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.

26-Kennedy, H. P. (2004). Enhancing delphi research: methods and results. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 45(5), 504–511.

27-Kpodo, B., & Agyekum, K. (2015). The effects of risk culture on organisational performance - the cases of some selected financial institutions in ghana. International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), 681-689.

28-Levi, D. (2001). Group dynamics for team. London: Sage Publication.

29-Levy, C, Lamarre, E. & Twining, J. (2010). Taking control of organizational risk culture. McKinsey working papers on risk,16.

30-Levy, C., Krivkovich, A., El Ouali, M., & Graf, J.(2015). Managing the People Side of Risk- Risk Culture Transformation. McKinsey on Risk Viewpoint.

31-Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (2002). The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications.

32-Mahler, J. G., (1987). Structured decision making in public organisations. Public administration. July/august. 336-342.

33-Manakandan, S. K., Rosnah I., Mohd Ridhuan J., & Priya R. (2017). Pesticide applicators questionnaire content validation: A fuzzy delphi method. Med J Malaysia, 72(4), 228-235.

34-McConnell, P. J. (2013). A risk culture framework for systemically important banks. Journal of Risk and Governance, 3(1), 23-68.

35-McGing, S., & Brown, A. (2014). Risk Culture Leadership, Measurement & Management – A Comparison across Industries. Presented to the Actuaries Institute Financial Service Forum. 5–6 May.

36-Mohamad, S. N. A., Embi, M. A., & Nordin, N., (2015). Determining e-portfolio elements in learning process using fuzzy delphi analysis,International Education Studies. 8(9), 171-176.

37-Okoli, C. & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications. Information &Management, 42 (1), 15-30.

38-Power, M., Ashby, S., & Palermo, T. (2014). Risk Culture in Financial Organisations: a research report.

39-PWC. (2009). The risk culture survey. London: PricewaterhouseCoopers.

40-Rasmussen, M.,& Marks, N. N. (2010). Creating a risk management culture. ERM Symposium.

41-RMA. (2014). Risk culture: from theory to evolving practice. The RMA Journal, 24-26.

42-Rossiter, C. (2001). Risk culture - up close and personal. CA Magazi, 134(3), 45-50.

43-Sánchez-Lezama, A. P., Cavazos-Arroyo, J., & Albavera-Hernández, C. (2014) Applying the Fuzzy Delphi Method for determining socio-ecological factors that influence adherence to mammography screening in rural areas of mexico. Methodological issues, 30(2), 245-258.

44-Schoenfeld, D. (2013). Organisational risk culture: differences between managerial expectations and employees' perception. A thesis submitted to the university of gloucestershire in accordance with the requirements of the degree of doctor of business administration.

45-Sitlington, H. B., & Coetzer A. J. (2015). Using the delphi technique to support curriculum development , Education + Training, 57(3), 306-321.

46-Tower Watson. (2011). Measuring risk culture: a powerful approach to demonstrate embedding of risk management with in an organization. Insights.

47-VMIA. (2016).Victorian government risk management framework .practice guides. https://www.vmia.vic.gov.au/~/media/internet/content-documents/risk /vgrmf/vgrmf-practice-notes-risk-culture.pdf.

48-Walker, D. (2009). A review of corporate governance in UK banks and other financial entities: final recommendations, HM Treasury, London.

49-Wong, E., & Ross, P. (2015). Risk culture-the human factor in risk management. KPMG. https://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/topics/KPMG-Ignite/Documents/2015/ Risk-Culture-w-Model-FINAL.pdf.

50-Zadeh, L. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information Control, 8, 338–353.

51-Zhao, X., Hwang, B., & Gao, Y. (2015). A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach for risk assessment: A Case of Singapore’s green projects. Journal of Cleaner Production, Article In Press.